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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND THE FAR WESTERN
OK PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Southern High Plains...
The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed
based on recent observations and morning guidance. 12 UTC soundings
across the central Rockies into the High Plains show a deep, dry
boundary-layer atop a shallow moist layer. This low-level moisture
is mixing out rapidly based on recent surface observations with
several stations already reporting critical conditions from eastern
NM into the TX/OK Panhandles - likely aided by synoptic subsidence
that is overspreading the region (per latest low-level water vapor
imagery). 

Such conditions will beco*e more expansive from west to east through
the afternoon as this subsidence spreads into the Plains. Confidence
in extremely critical conditions remains highest across southeast CO
where favorable overlap of downslope winds and a mid-level jet will
support 50-60 mph wind gusts and single-digit RH. Periods of
extremely critical conditions are possible across the OK/TX
Panhandles and western OK this afternoon as winds gust between 30-40
mph. Winds will shift to the northwest across the High Plains during
the late afternoon/evening hours as a cold front moves southeast
from the I-70 corridor into the TX Panhandle and western OK. Gusty
winds behind the front may impact any ongoing fires.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The Elevated risk area is expanded into portions of NY, MA, CT, and
VT where the potential for several hours of elevated wind/RH
conditions this afternoon has increased. Late-morning surface
observations across this region already show 15-20 mph winds with
15-25% RH. Given dry upstream conditions, elevated wind/RH should
persist through the afternoon hours.

..Moore.. 04/29/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will move across the central Rockies
today. The mid-level jet will move over portions of northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado during peak heating hours. At the
surface, a deep surface low will develop in western Kansas and drive
strong surface winds across the southern High Plains.

...Northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...
Strong downslope winds in excess of 30 mph are expected to occur in
the lee of the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread single-digit RH is
expected to develop by late-morning/early-afternoon. Widespread ERCs
above the 90th percentile will support extreme fire behavior under
these meteorological conditions. Towards the end of the afternoon, a
cold front will move through southeast Colorado and southwest
Kansas. Winds will shift from westerly to northwesterly. Despite
some RH recovery behind the front, confidence remains high that
several hours of Extremely Critical conditions will occur.

Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, Elevated to Critical
conditions are expected during the afternoon in the post-dryline
environment. RH will be similarly low across the broader region, but
winds will only reach 15-25 mph.

...Mid-Atlantic...
This evening's observed soundings from the Northeast into
southeastern Canada show a very dry low-level airmass. A strong
upper-low off of the northeast coast will couple with a high
pressure system in Canada to promote gusty offshore northwesterly
winds. Fine fuels are quite dry in this region. With RH falling
below 20% in some locations, 15-20 mph winds will bring Elevated
fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...