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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and
central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable
airmass is forecast across north Texas, Oklahoma and southeast
Kansas during the afternoon. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement concerning the position of the instability corridor and
shortwave trough. As a result, confidence is considerable concerning
the forecast of a severe threat in the southern Plains Monday
afternoon. The threat area has been expanded northward due to some
solutions having more aggressive moisture return. Moderate
instability and deep-layer shear along with steep mid-level lapse
rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage
and a few tornadoes may also occur during the late afternoon and
early to mid evening.

On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, as the moist axis shifts eastward into the
Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. Thunderstorm development will
be possible during the afternoon ahead of the front from lower
Michigan southward into the Ohio Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear
in this area should support supercell development in places where
enough instability is realized. The main uncertainty for Tuesday is
where the severe threat will be greatest in a latitudinal sense. The
distribution of instability will likely determine how far north
organized convection can develop, and the models are not in
agreement concerning instability. For this reason, predictability is
too low at this time to add a threat area.

On Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
into the Rockies, as a moist and unstable airmass develops across
the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along
and to the east of a dryline Wednesday afternoon from northwest
Texas northward into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The
instability co*bined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development. Large
hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes seem likely in parts of the
southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. A 15 percent area
has been added to reflect the possibility of a severe weather event.


...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across
the southern Plains on Thursday and into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Friday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from
parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast States and
northward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorm
development should occur each day across the moist sector. Although
the situation does not appear focused, a severe threat could
materialize ahead of the trough in areas that heat up the most.
Although the mesoscale setup is very uncertain this far out,
synoptically a severe threat would be most probable Thursday
afternoon in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. However,
uncertainty is too high to add an area at the range in the forecast
cycle.