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Mesoscale Discussion 0579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290624Z - 290830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms coverage is anticipated across
central and eastern KS tonight. A few instances of large hail are
possible.

DISCUSSION...A strengthening low-level jet and related warm-air
advection has recently led to the initiation of a few thunderstorms
over south-central KS. This low-level jet will remain in place
throughout the night, while gradually shifting northward into more
of central KS. Persistent warm-air advection within the steep
lapse-rate environment is expected to result in increasing
thunderstorm coverage throughout much of the night. Recent forecast
soundings suggest the storms will likely be rooted near 800 mb, with
the steep lapse rate environment contributing to moderate buoyancy.
Vertical shear with the cloud-bearing layer will be modest (i.e.
around 20 kt) likely limiting storm organization. Even so, the
amount of buoyancy in place could still result in a few more robust
updrafts capable of hail.

..Mosier/Grams.. 04/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37309804 38599878 39309813 38899594 38099529 37319543
            37059662 37309804