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Mesoscale Discussion 0575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Areas affected...Areas near and north of the Laramie and Wind River
Ranges of Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281839Z - 282115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose some risk
for producing hail and locally strong surface gusts by 3-5 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous, negatively tilted short wave
trough now migrating east-northeast of the Sierra Nevada, upper flow
is forecast to beco*e increasingly difluent and divergent across
much of the  northern Rockies this afternoon.  It appears that
moderate mid-level flow (including 30+ kt around  500 mb) will also
back to an increasing southwesterly co*ponent, beneath a 50+ kt
west-southwesterly regime around 300 mb.  Above a destabilizing
upslope boundary-layer flow on the northeastern slopes of the
Laramie into Wind River Ranges, wind profiles will beco*e at least
conditionally supportive of supercell development.

The latest objective analysis does suggest that insolation and
boundary-layer mixing are contributing to steepening low-level lapse
rates and weak CAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) across this
region, and initial attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear
gradually underway.  With further daytime heating and some
additional increase in CAPE, various model output indicates that
orographic lift aided by increasing synoptic forcing for ascent may
contribute to scattered intensifying thunderstorm development as
early as 21-23Z.  A few of the stronger cells may beco*e capable of
producing small to marginally severe hail and locally strong wind
gusts while slowly advecting/propagating northeastward/eastward off
the higher terrain.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42870891 43450932 43500866 43440764 43560641 42620410
            41780500 42390594 42410710 42870891