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Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Areas affected...Parts of east-central South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262152Z - 262245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible as storms approach the coast of South Carolina and
southern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a few deep/sustained
updrafts keeping pace with convective outflow moving eastward toward
coastal SC and NC. These deeper updrafts are moving into a
moist/well-mixed boundary-layer with steep low-level lapse rates and
dewpoints in the upper 60s. In addition, locally backed flow ahead
of the approaching convection is contributing to modest convergence
and locally boosted boundary-layer SRH along the coast. These
factors, co*bined with modest deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear
near 25 knots) nearly perpendicular to the ongoing convection will
support locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.
Watch issuance is not expected owing to the localized nature of the
threat.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   32697965 32667989 32747997 32958013 33237993 33577975
            33927933 34877824 35047763 34587686 33547820 32697965