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Mesoscale Discussion 0745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081914Z - 082115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase into the
afternoon/evening with potential for damaging winds and large to
very large hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the
border in Mexico as well as across portions of far western Texas
this afternoon. The activity in west Texas has been slowly advancing
south and eastward near the Rio Grande. Activity across Mexico has
slowly begun to spread eastward into Texas as well. It is likely
that storms will move out of Mexico across the Rio Grande Valley
into portions of south-central Texas and into the south Texas Brush
Country.

The air mass across this region is very moist and unstable, with
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts will
support maintenance of supercells, capable of large to very large
hail (2-2.5 in) and damaging wind through the evening. This area is
being monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29600144 29760168 29940171 30060171 30230158 30230111
            30220024 29959945 29719904 29309854 27579806 27149815
            26939852 26729904 26959947 27459959 28390044 28910078
            29240091 29600144 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN