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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail
are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians,
Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be
possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley.

...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front,
will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today.
Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid
50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist
airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop
in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle
Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians.  This large
cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern
Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast
soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in
the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This environment will support the development of supercells with
large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show
very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be
supportive of damaging wind gusts.

Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern
Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the
afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the
most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level
lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and
hail during the mid to late afternoon.

...Rio Grande Valley...
A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow
remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the
trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the
Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of
northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio
Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast
soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range,
with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse
rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable
supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts
of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually
spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late
afternoon.

..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025