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Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061915Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms may develop this afternoon, posing a risk
for a severe gust, instance of hail, or a landspout tornado. The
severe threat appears too isolated and/or localized to warrant a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is beginning to deepen beneath and
immediately ahead of an upper low that is slowly drifting eastward
across the southern Rockies. A plume of colder mid-level
temperatures acco*panying this upper low is advecting eastward,
resulting in a steep mid-level lapse rate plume overspreading a
destabilizing airmass. To the west of a remnant
northwest-to-southeast oriented baroclinic boundary draped across
the TX Panhandle, surface temperatures are rising into the 60s F
amid upper 40s F dewpoints, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE
given the aforementioned colder temperatures aloft. Given scant
buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, the overall severe threat
should remain isolated, hence no WW issuance planned. However, a
severe gust or instance of hail may acco*pany one of the stronger
storms that manages to materialize. Furthermore, deep-layer vertical
oriented vorticity (including at low levels) does overlap with well
over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE in far eastern NM, where a landspout could
form if a robust updraft can develop and take advantage of this
environment.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33100493 33750466 34430446 35040419 35250389 35390333
            35110265 34430199 33350123 32880158 32690232 32720345
            32720415 33100493 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN