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Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

Valid 060733Z - 060900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadoes remain possible near/south of the warm front.
Otherwise, a threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will
continue.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing early this morning
across parts of the TX Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau. While the
mode has beco*e co*plex, a few supercells have persisted, with a
recent report of 2.5 inch hail in Crane County, TX. Convection may
continue to increase in coverage overnight, in response to an
eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone over the Southwest and
related strong low-level jet. 

Moderate to strong instability and very favorable deep-layer shear
will continue to support supercell potential overnight, though some
continued clustering of storms is possible, especially along an
eastward moving cold front. Large to very large hail and localized
severe gusts will continue to be a threat overnight with the
strongest storms. 

The environment remains conditionally favorable for tornadoes
near/south of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front, with
substantial low-level SRH continuing to be noted in the KDFX VWP.
Thus far, storms have tended to quickly move to the cool side of the
front and beco*e elevated. However, it remains possible that ongoing
developing convection west of Del Rio could evolve into a supercell
that would pose a tornado threat in addition to the hail/wind
potential. Storms near the intersection of the warm front and
eastward-moving cold front/outflow could also pose some embedded
tornado potential. 

With some severe threat likely to persist beyond the 4 AM CDT
expiration time of WW 229, local watch extension and/or new watch
issuance will be possible later this morning.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30870316 31980225 31980079 31839951 31499835 30959830
            30389867 29529957 29030029 29050107 29510198 29860257
            30320317 30870316 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN