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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the
southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain
critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather
concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05
UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the
central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast
over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the
lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern
Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low
within a dry return flow regime. 

...Southern Plains...
Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX,
OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime.
Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in
closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a
belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is
expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling
temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH
reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier
air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values
between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is
expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is
greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient
critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions
are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front;
however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional
highlights.

...Upper OH River Valley...
As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15
mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley.
Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a
narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited
moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, co*bined with
downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of
elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be
greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over
the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area.

..Moore.. 03/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...