SPC MD 499
SPC MD 499
[html]MD 0499 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND FAR WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern OK and far western AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152326Z - 160130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather risk may increase through this evening.
If storms can develop and beco*e sustained in the next couple hours,
all hazards will be possible and a WW may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a shallow
cumulus field along a diffuse dryline extending southward across
east-central OK. A few cumulus towers are attempting to deepen in
the vicinity of the dryline, though weak convergence and minimal
large-scale ascent cast uncertainty on convective initiation and
maintenance. East of the dryline, dewpoints in the lower 60s will
continue spreading northward, supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Long
hodographs with ample boundary-layer streamwise vorticity would
support supercells capable of all hazards if they can initiate and
maintain themselves. Trends will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance.
..Weinman/Grams.. 04/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37009458 36249414 34999414 34159446 34009551 34229644
34979680 35699688 36409686 36899644 37099559 37009458
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