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Mesoscale Discussion 0496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151808Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Pulse thunderstorms may be capable of sporadic instances
of severe hail and/or damaging winds. However, the overall severe
threat remains low, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics over the past hour have shown
thunderstorms developing along a sea breeze boundary across the
eastern FL peninsula. Vertically integrated ice, IR imagery, and
lightning trends all show the pulse nature of this convection, with
individual updrafts only persisting for 15-30 minutes. This is due
to relatively meager deep-layer shear (20-30 knots of effective bulk
shear), and rapid undercutting from the westward-moving sea breeze
boundary. These factors will continue to limit the duration of the
severe threat from any one storm. However, moderate instability near
3000 J/kg MUCAPE will continue to support the potential for strong
updraft pulses that may support hail up to one inch and damaging
winds. Given the limited nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected.

..Moore/Bunting.. 04/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28878213 29008152 28668084 27988046 27498032 26938021
            26158012 25608033 25838096 26688135 27948195 28618227
            28878213