Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose at least some risk for
severe wind and hail Saturday from parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast.  An isolated severe
storm or two is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country vicinity.

...Synopsis...
While the mid-latitude westerlies beco*e more progressive across the
northern tier of the U.S. during this period, models indicate that a
mid/upper high will beco*e increasingly prominent across the lower
latitude eastern Pacific and southern Mexico.  To the north of the
high, ridging is forecast to build along a broad axis as far north
as the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley by early
Saturday.  This ridging appears likely to persist much of Saturday
into Saturday night, before a short wave impulse emanating from the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific rapidly progresses across the
southern Great Basin and southern Rockies.

Farther north, one significant remnant perturbation, emerging from
the deep mid-level low currently over the Upper Midwest, is forecast
to dig southeast of the Great Lakes region during the day Saturday,
before turning eastward toward the northern Atlantic Seaboard.  It
appears that this will occur as an upstream impulse accelerates
inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the northern
Rockies by 12Z Sunday.

The lead impulse may be acco*panied by modest surface cyclogenesis
near the New England coast by Saturday evening, with a trailing cold
front forecast to advance across the northern and middle Atlantic
coast by late Saturday night.  As it does, models suggest that it
will merge with a stalled preceding cold front, across the southern
Atlantic coast into Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern
Great Plains.  Seasonably moist and potentially unstable
boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to areas preceding
the lead surface front, across the Gulf Coast states.  Scattered
thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, near/northwest
of the Ark-La-Tex through northern portions of the eastern Gulf
states, trailing a low amplitude perturbation which may be migrating
east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, within larger-scale
cyclonic flow to the south of the main mid-level troughing over the
Great Lakes.

...Ark-La-Tex into Southeast...
In the wake of the low amplitude wave forecast to cross the southern
Appalachians through southern Mid Atlantic coast early Saturday,
mid/upper support for thunderstorm development through much of
Saturday and Saturday night is unclear.  To the east-northeast of
the lower latitude ridging, modest, broadly difluent mid/upper flow
appears likely to prevail, perhaps with one or more digging
convectively enhanced or generated perturbations.  Models do
indicate that moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg may develop within the pre-frontal environment with daytime
heating.  Coupled with modest shear beneath 30+ kt flow around the
500 mb level, it appears that conditions may beco*e supportive of a
mix of scattered discrete storms and organizing clusters which may
beco*e capable of producing at least marginally severe wind and
hail.  Lower-level wind fields are forecast to remain rather weak,
and, coupled with the uncertain mid/upper support, this may be the
primary limiting factor concerning severe weather probabilities for
this period.

...Edwards Plateau/Hill Country into northeast Texas...
Likely due to weak, or at least uncertain, mid/upper forcing for
convective development, there is little signal in the various model
output for an appreciable risk of thunderstorms during this period. 
However, the environment along the cold front and dryline appears
likely to beco*e at least conditionally supportive of supercell
development late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  And the
initiation of isolated storms, in response to locally enhanced
convergence and daytime heating weakening inhibition, appears at
least possible.

..Kerr.. 04/15/2022