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Mesoscale Discussion 0494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into eastern
NY/southwest New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141819Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should increase in
coverage by 20-21z. Locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard
associated with this activity from eastern NY/southwest New England
southward to the northern Chesapeake Bay vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Deepening of cumulus ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front has been noted in visibly satellite imagery over the past
hour across the discussion area. Strong heating has resulted in
widespread temperatures mainly ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s
amid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates,
this is aiding in very modest instability, with MLCAPE generally
less than 500 J/kg as of 18z. Some further destabilization should
occur over the next couple of hours and convection should increase
in coverage  by 20-21z. While instability will remain modest,
moderate vertical shear should support some organized cells/line
segments. Strong heating also has resulted in very steep low-level
lapse rates. This will promote strong gust potential with
strong/better-organized convection this afternoon. Convective trends
will be monitored and a watch could beco*e necessary this afternoon
if coverage of stronger cells beco*es more certain.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39517731 41957502 43197414 43407385 43387344 43277330
            43007314 42627311 42067301 40977333 40007400 38857526
            38737621 38787691 39087738 39517731