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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are expected across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Hudson Valley this afternoon
and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic to Hudson Valley this afternoon/evening...
A deep occluded low over northern MN will move slowly
east-northeastward into ON as an embedded shortwave trough rotates
northeastward over the lower Great Lakes and Northeast.  The
shortwave trough is acco*panied by a surface cold front that will
cross the Appalachian crest early this afternoon and reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast this evening.  Surface heating to the east of a
cloud band along the front will result in afternoon temperatures of
75-80 F inland from the coast, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
55-60 F range across eastern PA/NJ to the Hudson Valley (west of the
cool air wedge across eastern New England).

Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, but the surface heating/mixing
will drive steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
in the pre-frontal warm sector.  Relatively straight hodographs with
35-45 kt effective bulk shear will support a mix of multicell
clusters/line segments, and perhaps some low-end supercell
structures this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging outflow
gusts.  The severe threat should be limited to a roughly four-hour
window from about 19-23z, after which convection will move offshore
or weaken while encountering the cool air wedge lingering across
VT/MA/CT.

...VA to GA this afternoon/evening...
A remnant MCV from convection yesterday across MS/AL is now moving
northeastward into VA from NC, and will likely approach Chesapeake
Bay by mid afternoon.  A few storms with strong outflow gusts may
form along or just ahead of the cold front from NC into VA this
afternoon where temperatures warm to near 80 F with dewpoints near
or above 60 F.  However, the potential for organized storms will
diminish from southwest-to-northeast as midlevel flow weakens in the
wake of the remnant MCV.  Farther south toward GA, severe storms are
not expected as a result of high-level cloud debris slowing surface
heating, in co*bination with weak vertical shear and only minimal
forcing for ascent.

..Thompson/Mosier.. 04/14/2022