Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday evening and
night from central/eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds should be the
main threats where thunderstorms develop. A brief tornado may occur
from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas during the evening.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave riding will occur over the Rockies on Friday as an upper
low shifts east out of Ontario and the Great Lakes, and an upper
trough amplifies over the West Coast. This will result in mainly
zonal mid/upper flow across the southern Plains and Southeast, and
gradual warming aloft and weakening of midlevel winds through
Saturday morning.

At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast will move offshore
and weaken, allowing for increasing southerly winds from the Gulf of
Mexico into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. As a result,
rapid moisture recovery is expected, with mid 60+ F dewpoints as far
north as I-40 in OK and AR by Friday evening. Meanwhile, an
east-west oriented front will push south across the central Plains
during the day, reaching from northern OK to the MO/AR border area
by 00Z. This boundary, as well as increasing lift related to a 50 kt
low-level jet, will result in at least isolated severe potential
during the evening and overnight.

...Central OK eastward toward the TN Valley...
Elevated storms rooted above 850 mb may form early Friday from
southeast KS into southern MO associated with a 50 kt low-level jet,
and are unlikely to be severe. However, any outflow may potential
reinforce the main front as is drops south across KS and MO during
the day. By late afternoon, diurnal activity appears likely from
southern MO into northeast OK, along the cold front and east of a
dryline which will be close to I-35. Steep lapse rates aloft as well
as elongated hodographs will favor cells capable of hail, and likely
moving in a southeastward direction. A couple supercells are
possible though a degree of upscale growth may occur as well.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible as
effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2. Capping will beco*e a concern
after 00Z, and may mitigate tornado threat somewhat. While the
rapidly veering low-level jet and height rises after 00Z are
potential mitigating factors regarding severe storm coverage, models
are in good agreement with a zone of focused storm coverage across
the Slight Risk area.

Other storms dropping southeastward across western TN, northern MS
and into northwest AL overnight may produce isolated severe hail or
wind given long hodographs favoring southeastward movement.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2022