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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

The primary changes made to the outlook were to add a Critical area
to parts of the southern High Plains and expand portions of the
Elevated area into central Texas and western Iowa to reflect the
latest guidance consensus. Currently, sunny skies prevail across the
central U.S., which will continue through the afternoon, promoting
further boundary-layer mixing and associated drops in RH, spanning
from 15 percent along the lee of the Rockies, to 25 percent in Iowa.
With widespread 90+ percentile ERCs forecast for much of the Plains
states, high-end Elevated conditions are expected, with Critical
conditions (20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 15
percent RH) likely across eastern New Mexico and Colorado into the
Oklahoma Panhandle by afternoon peak heating. While relatively
cooler surface temperatures and higher RH are expected in Nebraska
into Iowa, the (currently observed) sustained 20-30 mph westerly
surface winds should continue through the afternoon, co*pensating to
support an appreciable wildfire-spread threat.

..Squitieri.. 04/14/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/

...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will continue across the western CONUS in the
wake of a de-amplifying mid-level low across the eastern US. Lee
troughing will gradually strengthen surface winds supporting
downslope flow from the central High Plains to southern NM. Dry
surface conditions and gusty winds will support Elevated fire
weather concerns for a few hours this afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
Within the modified post-frontal airmass across the central US,
westerly flow will dominate the atmosphere in the absence of
stronger mid-level perturbations. Subtle lee troughing should
develop by mid morning, enhancing downslope flow across the
southern/central Plains. Very dry surface conditions are again
expected with RH values in the low single digits possible. Wind
fields will be relatively modest (less than 20 mph) owing to
relatively poor phasing of stronger flow aloft and the lack of
stronger surface troughing. However, the extremely dry conditions
and very dry fuels will likely still support widespread Elevated and
near-Critical conditions from eastern NM into portions of west TX. 

Farther north across the central High Plains, low-level wind fields
will be somewhat stronger beneath the zonal flow aloft. Winds of
15-25 mph may support brief Critical conditions within 15-20% RH and
dry fuels. However, confidence in sustained Critical conditions is
lower within the cooler airmass where a limited duration of Critical
wind/RH conditions are expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...