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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for scattered damaging thunderstorm winds is expected
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly this
afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
A large mid/upper-level low and associated surface cyclone will move
from the Upper Great Lakes region into Ontario today. An attendant
cold front will move through parts of the Southeast, Mid Atlantic,
and New England, with a weak frontal wave potentially developing
across southern New England during the late afternoon/evening. 

...Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to
low 60s F) will be in place ahead of the front today across the Mid
Atlantic into parts of New England. Relatively robust heating (70s
to low 80s F) will result in the development of weak to locally
moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg
range. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front by mid-afternoon, with convection spreading into the I-95
corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Relatively strong
midlevel flow on the periphery of the large mid/upper-level low will
support effective shear of 40+ kts, sufficient for some storm
organization. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging
wind potential with the strongest cells/clusters. 

...GA into the Carolinas/southeast VA...
Weak-to-moderate buoyancy will also develop ahead of the front
across from GA into the Carolinas and southeast VA, though midlevel
flow and deep-layer shear will be weaker co*pared to areas further
north. With relatively limited large-scale ascent across the region,
the timing and coverage of thunderstorm development remain somewhat
uncertain, but at least isolated cells/clusters appear possible by
late afternoon. Convection may remain somewhat disorganized due to
the relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep low-level lapse
rates will support some potential for damaging winds with the
strongest storms. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out in areas
where somewhat stronger buoyancy can materialize.

..Dean/Lyons.. 04/14/2022