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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday evening and
night from parts of central/eastern Oklahoma into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the main threats if thunderstorms develop, but a tornado
or two also appears possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low is forecast to remain centered over Ontario/Quebec
on Friday. A belt of around 50-60 kt mid-level westerly winds should
extend over much of the central CONUS to the south of the upper low.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft should persist over the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley through the period. Multiple low-amplitude,
mid-level disturbances may move across these regions. Surface high
pressure will shift off the East Coast through the day, with a weak
surface low forecast to develop over the southern High Plains. A
dryline will extend southward from this low over central TX.

...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture originating from the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico will likely return northward across east TX, eastern OK, and
the lower MS Valley to the east of the dryline through early Friday
evening. The presence of somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates
and diurnal heating of this moist airmass should encourage the
development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Friday
afternoon. The enhanced mid-level westerly flow mentioned previously
should support rather strong deep-layer shear, with 40-50+ kt of
effective bulk shear likely. This favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will conditionally support organized severe
thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells.

However, considerable uncertainty remains whether convection will
initiate along/east of the dryline in central/eastern OK or western
AR late Friday afternoon into the early evening and remain surface
based. Large-scale ascent aloft appears nebulous at best in this
time frame. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms may
form in this region or along the developing warm front farther east
Friday evening/night in tandem with a 25-40 kt southwesterly
low-level jet. If thunderstorms can form, they would be capable of
producing isolated large hail and damaging winds as they move
eastward towards the lower MS Valley and Mid-South Friday night. A
tornado or two also appears possible mainly Friday evening if a
supercell can form and remain surface based. At this point, there is
not enough confidence in convection occurring to include greater
severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 04/14/2022