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Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central into northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131657Z - 131830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging
gusts are possible the next several hours across parts of
northern/central TX. A watch may be needed for portions of this
area.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are developing along the
eastward-advancing cold front from north into central TX as of
1630z. The downstream environment has warmed into the mid 70s to
near 80 deg F in an area of clearing behind morning
convection/cloudiness and ahead of the cold front. Surface dewpoints
also are in the upper 60s to low 70s F beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. This is resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Effective shear greater than 40 kt will support organized storms
with an attendant threat for large hail and locally strong gusts.
Low-level shear is expected to remain modest and overall tornado
potential is expected to remain low as a result. The overall threat
should decrease with southward extent as large-scale ascent
decreases. However, a small corridor of severe potential across
parts of north-central into northeast TX may require a severe
thunderstorm watch to the west of Tornado Watch 120, though any
stronger convection that develops closer to the Red River should
quickly shift east into WW 120.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33679606 33759548 33659496 33389483 32909475 32389489
            31839519 31499558 31329619 31249675 31209689 31279730
            31309747 31489754 31729744 32139720 33279643 33539627
            33679606