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Mesoscale Discussion 0469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Louisiana...southeastern
Arkansas...into central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

Valid 130411Z - 130615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

SUMMARY...It is possible the organized cluster of storms may begin
to weaken rapidly as it advances east of the Mississippi River after
1 AM CDT.  However, until it weakens, the risk for damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few brief/weak tornadoes may continue with the
eastward moving organized cluster of storms.

DISCUSSION...Forward propagation of the organized cluster of storms
is being maintained at 40-45 kt across northern Louisiana, aided by
rear inflow to the south of the associated mesoscale convective
vortex now beginning to migrate northeast of the Ark-La-Tex region. 
Intense convection persists along the leading edge of the surging
outflow, and this may continue across the remainder of northern
Louisiana through 05-06Z.  However, the convection is progressing
into a progressively less unstable environment, with weaker
lower/mid tropospheric lapse, and this appears unlikely to change
much during the next few hours.  Particularly as activity spreads
east of the Mississippi River after 06Z, it appears possible that it
could undergo rapid substantive weakening.  Until it does, though, a
risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief/weak tornadoes
may persist along the gust front.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33229240 33479078 32398923 31539043 31559133 31769253
            32529229 33229240