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Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

Valid 130239Z - 130415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

SUMMARY...A well developed bowing MCS over far northeast TX should
continue eastward across portions of AR and LA over the next several
hours. The environment remains favorable for damaging wind gusts and
QLCS tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
well-developed bowing MCS located near the northern TX/LA border.
Ahead of the line, warm advection beneath and 40-50 kt low-level jet
is transporting rich boundary-layer moisture (TDs upper 60s low 70s
F) northward, slowing nocturnal stabilization. Continued advection
of the warm and moist airmass is contributing to roughly 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE, which should continue to support the MCS as it moves
eastward into LA/AR. In response to the strengthening flow beneath
the low-level jet, stronger low-level shear has developed, with ESRH
of 200-400 M2/s2 observed via regional VAD VWPs. The strengthening
flow and greater shear should continue to support downward momentum
transport conducive to damaging wind gusts. A few QLCS tornadoes
also appear likely given the magnitude of low-level shear and a well
developed rear-inflow jet as observed by KSHV.

Several recent attempts at discrete ci ahead of the line also hint
at a conditional risk for a supercell or two given the favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) and potential for low-level updraft
rotation. While uncertain, should a storm develop and remain ahead
of the line it would likely present a risk for tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts through this evening.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31319412 31409466 31569490 31629491 31739482 31939468
            32149459 32419453 32659448 32839454 33149468 33409472
            33699443 33899387 33939324 33879282 33769243 33509223
            33349222 32989211 32489212 32139227 31839249 31559278
            31379321 31329372 31319412