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Mesoscale Discussion 0466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Much of central/southwestern Iowa...northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

Valid 130238Z - 130445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line likely will continue into, across and east
of the Interstate 35 corridor of central Iowa through 11 PM-1 AM,
with severe wind gusts the primary potential severe hazard.

DISCUSSION...Numerous surging convective outflows and embedded
low-level circulations have developed within the evolving
pre-frontal squall line.  Across western Iowa, particularly
near/north of the Interstate 80 corridor, activity appears to be
accelerating eastward now in excess of 30 kt, and the squall line
will probably overspread much of central Iowa by 04-06Z.  In the
wake of a lead mid-level perturbation/jet streak now shifting into
Minnesota/Wisconsin, it appears that the strong southerly low-level
flow (including 50-60+ kt around 850 mb) will tend to veer to a more
southwesterly co*ponent, and low-level hodographs ahead of the line
will tend to beco*e more linear.  

With near surface thermodynamic profiles ahead of the line still
characterized by 10-15 degree temp/dew point spreads due to daytime
mixing, the primary severe hazard with this activity has probably
been locally damaging wind gusts associated with the circulations. 
This is expected to remain the case as the low-level hodographs
trend more linear, but it is still possible that strong surface
gusts could beco*e a bit more widespread before activity weakens
later tonight.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...to*...

LAT...LON   39739616 42059447 43169321 42479179 40729280 39669513
            39739616