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Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota...northeastern
Iowa...southwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 130014Z - 130215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of an increasingly organized cluster of
storms seems probable this evening, before overspreading the region
through 10 PM-Midnight, acco*panied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorm development continues to increase
in coverage in association with large-scale ascent downstream of a
deep northeastward migrating surface cyclone.  This is being aided
by forcing associated with a subtle lead short wave perturbation,
and includes an evolving cluster of supercells near the Fort Dodge
IA area.  

As the mid-level perturbation migrates northeast of the mid Missouri
Valley toward the Upper Midwest through mid to late evening,
considerable further upscale convective growth will continue to
ensue.  The evolution of an increasingly organized mesoscale
convective system seems probable as the environment destabilizes
coincident with increasing forcing for ascent overspreading the
region. 

Embedded within strengthening deep-layer ambient mean flow (in
excess of 50 kt), increasingly widespread damaging wind gusts are
possible.  A coinciding larger-scale bow structure may evolve in
radar reflectivities, with embedded supercell structures posing a
risk for tornadoes, mainly where the apex of the bow intersects a
northeastward advancing warm front ahead of the surface cyclone.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42779363 44229246 44949157 43868977 41689225 42279370
            42779363