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Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Areas near the Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121918Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible along the
dryline near the Texas Hill Country this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Areas along the dryline in the Texas Hill Country have
started to see an increase in cumulus coverage over the past 30
minutes. Additionally, a shower developed over the eastern slopes of
the Del Burro mountains and satellite suggests it may be trying to
deepen as it moves east.

Forcing for ascent along the dryline is quite weak and therefore any
development is expected to be isolated. However, if any storms form,
the wind profile will support supercells (effective shear 45 to 50
knots), and very steep lapse rates will also lead to a threat for
very large hail. Even if a supercell does develop, coverage may be
too limited to warrant a watch, but if more widespread storm
development occurs along the dryline, a watch may be needed south of
watch 110.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28310039 28420045 28940077 29340106 29550139 29950073
            30180015 30759994 30779901 30739853 30049853 29279883
            28829910 28519980 28310039