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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and
tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into
the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Portions of west-central/north-central Iowa have been upgraded to a
Categorical Moderate Risk, with a somewhat focused potential for
tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds expected late
this afternoon and evening near the surface low and nearby triple
point/warm front vicinity.

Potentially intense thunderstorm development, including
surface-based convection and elevated storms to the north of the
northward-shifting warm front, is expected by late afternoon across
eastern Nebraska/northwest Iowa/southeast Minnesota generally near
the surface low/triple point. Moisture return across the warm sector
will be relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints), but will be sufficient for the development of moderate
buoyancy due to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and
relatively cool temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite
favorable for supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity
of the warm front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged
low-level hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within
this regime will be capable of all severe hazards, including the
potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail.

Later this evening, more widespread/southward-spatially expanding
convection is expected along the eastward-surging cold front,
resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat this evening.
Damaging winds aside, a tornado threat will also exist with any
embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection given
the robust magnitude of low-level winds (upwards of 60-70 kt) in the
lowest 2-3 km AGL. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by
early in the overnight.

...Central/North Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream/lead shortwave trough nearing the south
Texas/Mexico border vicinity this morning will continue
northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss through evening. Storms may
develop as soon as mid-afternoon near the dryline as it extends
across north/west-central Texas. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will
favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters
into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail
and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any
supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east
of the dryline may also pose some tornado threat.

An additional/somewhat separate corridor of potentially severe
storms are possible this afternoon and evening farther east across
far east Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. While the
details are a bit unclear, strengthening deep-layer shear and
moderate buoyancy would be supportive of at least some hail/wind
potential, and low-level shear/helicity, enhanced by a diurnally
sustained branch of the low-level jet, may be sufficient for a
couple of tornadoes as well.

...Central/eastern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas...
A conditionally favorable supercell environment will exist late this
afternoon into evening along and ahead of the dryline that will
exist from central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma.
However, this region will be between the main mid-level trough and
surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude shortwave
trough to the south. Most convection-allowing models continue to
show very little signal for deep convective initiation in this
region. However, some global guidance such as multiple runs of the
ECMWF depict isolated development across central Oklahoma, and this
may be plausible given ample post-dryline heating/mixing and
confluence/modest convergence near the dryline. If/where storms
develop and sustain, localized intense/significant severe weather
may occur. Very large hail would be a possibility and a tornado risk
will likely exist as well, especially if any storms are sustained
through early/mid-evening as low-level hodographs further enlarge.

..Guyer/Smith.. 04/12/2022