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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Gulf moisture should attempt to return northward across parts of the
southern Plains and Southeast beginning on Day 4/Friday and
continuing through the upco*ing weekend. A dryline is forecast to
set up over parts of central TX each afternoon in this time frame.
It remains unclear how much, if any, convection will develop each
day to the east of the dryline, as mid-level flow should be fairly
zonal. Still, multiple lower-amplitude shortwave troughs may move
over the western/central CONUS and provide sufficient large-scale
ascent to aid convective initiation over parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Friday through
at least Day 6/Sunday. An isolated threat for organized severe
thunderstorms could materialize across portions of these regions on
one or more days, but confidence in the placement and overall
coverage of convection remains too low to delineate any 15% severe
areas at this time. On Day 7/Monday, some severe risk may exist over
parts of the Southeast as an upper trough possibly amplifies over
the MS/OH Valleys. However, details remain very uncertain at this
extended time frame.