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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should
continue occluding as it moves slowly northeastward into Canada. The
primary surface low will remain over these regions as well, while a
secondary low should develop eastward over parts of the Northeast
through the day. A cold front will also move eastward over much of
the eastern states, but it should stall over the Southeast.

...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
Adequate low-level moisture should be in place ahead of the cold
front for surface-based thunderstorms to develop by Thursday
afternoon. Diurnal heating coupled with the sufficiently moist
low-level airmass and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates
should be enough to support weak instability. Convergence along the
front itself appears weak, as low-level winds are forecast to
gradually veer to westerly through the day. Still, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will probably develop Thursday afternoon
along much of the front extending from parts of the central Gulf
Coast northeastward into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps
southern New England. Mid-level winds will be stronger with
northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate to
strong deep-layer shear should support some organization with these
thunderstorms. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main
threat as convection spreads eastward and eventually off the East
Coast through Thursday evening.

..Gleason.. 04/12/2022