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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
As the powerful mid-level cyclone shifts northeastward through Day
1/Tuesday, mid-level flow will turn northwesterly and accelerate
over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Despite cooling
temperatures, very strong wind fields and very low humidity are
expected to develop support a second day of widespread Critical fire
weather conditions within receptive fuels. 

...Central/Southern High Plains...
With the mid-level jet turning more westerly with time behind the
departing upper low across the Midwest, strong west/northwesterly
flow will continue to overspread the southern Rockies and High
Plains. Strong downslope winds are expected from eastern NM into the
western TX Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. With strong
subsidence and downsloping, extremely dry surface conditions appear
likely to develop with model soundings showing mean mixed-layer RH
values as low as 2-3%. Extremely dry fuels remain in place
supporting high confidence in dangerous fire weather conditions.

Lesser confidence exists in the potential for sustained Extremely
Critical conditions across portions of eastern NM and the
southwestern TX Panhandle. The primary concerns revolve around
duration of the stronger winds as a cooler boundary-layer and cold
front may limit any Extremely Critical Conditions. Offset from the
brunt of diurnal heating, overlap appears to be small casting
significant uncertainty. However, fuel states remain exceptionally
favorable for fire spreads/starts supporting at least the potential
for an upgrade to Extremely critical in subsequent outlooks.  

...Central High Plains...
In the wake of the earlier cold front, dry and windy conditions
should develop for a few hours across the central High Plains and
lee of the Rockies. The potential for light precipitation from Day 1
is not expected to hamper extremely dry fuels in place across the
region. While surface temperatures should be cool in the
post-frontal airmass, low relative humidity and gusty winds should
support Elevated fire weather potential for a few hours before the
arrival of cooler temperatures and higher humidity overnight.

..Lyons.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...