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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
NE...MUCH OF IA...FAR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST
MO...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad
portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level longwave trough is forecast to amplify over
the central/western CONUS today. A strong embedded shortwave trough
over the central/northern Rockies is forecast to intensify and move
toward the central/northern High Plains by this evening, as a
separate low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from TX toward the
lower MS Valley. A surface cyclone will move eastward from northeast
CO through NE into IA by this evening, as a warm front surges
northward in advance of the cyclone, and a cold front begins
accelerating southeastward across the central Plains in the wake of
the cyclone. 

A potentially volatile severe thunderstorm environment will develop
across a broad area of the central/southern Plains into the
lower/mid MS Valley by late afternoon. However, considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of storms across parts of
the warm sector.

...Central Plains into parts of the Midwest...
Thunderstorm development is possible by late afternoon near the
surface low/triple point, and potentially in a zone between the warm
front and effective dryline, somewhere across eastern NE/western IA
into southern MN. Moisture return across the warm sector will be
relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), but
will be sufficient for the development of moderate buoyancy due to
the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cool
temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite favorable for
supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity of the warm
front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged low-level
hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within this regime
will be capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for
strong tornadoes and very large hail. Uncertainty remains regarding
the coverage of warm sector development, as well as the placement of
the surface low and warm front near and just after peak heating. An
upgrade may eventually be needed once there is greater confidence in
the placement of these features. 

Later this evening, more widespread convection is expected along the
surging cold front, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat
with time tonight. Some brief tornado threat may also be present
with any embedded circulations within the line of frontal
convection, though storms will eventually be undercut as the front
surges into a region of increasing MLCINH. 

...South-central KS into western/central OK...
A very favorable supercell environment will develop along and ahead
of the dryline from central KS into western/central OK late this
afternoon. However, this region will be between the main midlevel
trough and surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude
shortwave trough to the south. While guidance generally removes all
MLCINH along the dryline, there is very little signal for initiation
in this region. An isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out,
but confidence is too low to maintain a 30% hail risk. Please note
that a Slight Risk remains across this area, with conditional
potential for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes if storms
can develop.

...Central/North TX into the lower MS Valley...
There is a greater signal for storm development during the afternoon
evening is this region co*pared to parts of OK/KS, likely due to the
influence of the ejecting low-amplitude trough. Storms may develop
as soon as mid afternoon near the dryline. Effective shear of 35-45
kt will favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized
clusters into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong
buoyancy and steep midlevel lapse rates will support a threat of
very large hail and severe wind gusts with the strongest
cells/clusters. Any supercells that can persist into the richer
low-level moisture east of the dryline may also pose some tornado
threat.

Further east across the ArkLaTex vicinity, scattered thunderstorm
development is possible during the afternoon/evening within a warm
advection regime. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
organized convection in this area, but instability and shear will
support some hail/wind risk with the strongest storms, and low-level
shear/helicity may be sufficient for a couple of tornadoes as well.

..Dean/Lyons.. 04/12/2022