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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion
of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Southeast on Wednesday. Damaging winds, some of which could be
significant, several tornadoes (some strong), and large to very
large hail will likely occur.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to eject from the Plains across
the MS Valley and into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on
Wednesday. The southern portion of the trough will likely acquire a
negative tilt as it moves over the mid MS Valley and Midwest through
the day. A 60-80+ kt mid-level jet will also overspread these
regions, with a broader area of enhanced mid-level winds
enco*passing much of the surface warm sector. A surface low over the
Upper Midwest Wednesday morning is forecast to develop eastward over
the Upper Great Lakes through the day. An attendant cold front will
sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest, lower/mid MS
Valley, and Southeast through the period.

...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
Isolated to scattered convection will probably be ongoing Wednesday
morning along/ahead of the front across parts of the lower/mid MS
Valley. This morning activity will be aided by strong low-level warm
advection associated with a 40-50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet.
Any ongoing thunderstorms may continue to pose an isolated severe
threat given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and sufficient
instability to support surface-based thunderstorms. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front by
late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The presence of at
least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints extending as far north as
IL/IN, coupled with filtered diurnal heating, will support the
development of generally 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Stronger
instability (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) may develop across parts of the
lower MS Valley Wednesday afternoon, as steeper mid-level lapse
rates should be present over this area.

Strong effective bulk shear of 45-55+ kt will likely exist owing to
the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the ejecting upper
trough. Low-level shear will also remain enhanced over much of the
warm sector as the low-level jet translates slowly eastward through
the period. Organized severe thunderstorms are expected given the
strong low-level and deep-layer shear. Convection will likely
organize into a bowing line along or just ahead of the cold front.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely as this
line develops and subsequently matures over parts of the lower/mid
MS Valley into the lower OH Valley. Significant gusts of 75+ mph
appear possible. Pre-frontal supercells may also occur over this
region, and several tornadoes appear likely with either the leading
supercells or with embedded QLCS circulations. Large hail will also
be a threat with any thunderstorms that can remain at least somewhat
discrete, and isolated very large (2+ inch) hail appears possible
centered over the lower MS Valley and vicinity where steeper
mid-level lapse rates should reside. At least an isolated severe
threat should persist with eastward extent into the OH/TN Valleys
and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/night. However,
low-level moisture and instability will be more limited across these
areas.

...New York/Pennsylvania...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Wednesday
afternoon as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves over NY/PA.
Although low-level moisture will remain fairly limited, sufficient
deep-layer shear should exist for modest updraft organization. A few
instances of hail and strong to damaging winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread eastward through the early evening.

..Gleason.. 04/12/2022