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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible from central
Montana into eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern is forecast to be in place over the CONUS
early Sunday, characterized by expansive upper ridging centered over
MO and two flanking upper troughs. This trough/ridge/trough pattern
will persist throughout the period while gradually shifting
eastward. By early Monday morning, the upper ridge is expected to
extend across the MS Valley into Ontario, with the eastern upper
trough off the Northeast coast and the western upper trough extended
from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin.

The surface pattern early Sunday morning is expected to feature high
pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes and lee troughing
across the High Plains. The presence and strength of the area high
pressure will have displaced much of the low-level moisture to its
southern and western periphery (from the Gulf Coast into the
Plains), limiting the thunderstorm potential east of the MS River.
The only exception is across portions of the Upper Great Lakes,
where afternoon storm development is possible ahead of a subtle
shortwave cresting the upper ridge, and over the FL Peninsula, where
low-level moisture and buoyancy remain in place.

...Northern High Plains into the western Dakotas...
Highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across Rockies
(particularly the central and southern Rockies) in the area to the
west of the upper ridge but east of the western CONUS upper trough.
Deep southerly/southwesterly flow will result in a northeastward
storm motion with the majority of these storms, including those that
develop across central MT and eastern WY. This motion will take
those high-based storms into the well-mixed boundary layer
anticipated over the northern High Plains. Given the modest
buoyancy, there is some uncertainty regarding storm intensity, but
strong outflow appears probable enough to merit delineation of a 5%
wind probabilities from central MT into eastern WY and the western
Dakotas. Some hail is also possible across central and eastern MT.

..Mosier.. 06/18/2022