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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND WESTERN UTAH...

The forecast remains largely on track with high confidence in
another day of widespread critical conditions along the NV/AZ/UT
border. Drier/windier solutions hint at the potential for winds near
30 mph gusting to 40-50 mph with RH near 10% during peak heating
under the mid-level jet axis across western UT. This likely
represents a reasonable worst-case scenario, and confidence in
sustained/widespread extremely critical conditions remains low given
a slight abatement of mid/upper-level winds. The Elevated risk area
is expanded into eastern UT where guidance has co*e into better
agreement regarding the potential for fairly widespread elevated
conditions. Critical conditions are possible across this region, but
cloud cover may sufficiently limit diurnal heating to support only
localized RH reductions below 15%. Other forecast concerns remain on
track as outlined in the previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 06/17/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/

...Synopsis...
A similar upper-level pattern to Friday will persist within the
Great Basin on Saturday. Some modest weakening of the mid-level
winds can be expected by the end of the day, however. Similarly, the
ridge in the Plains will continue to push mid-level moisture into
the eastern Great Basin. A surface trough will remain within the
central Basin while another lee trough in the central High Plains
will deepen during the day.

...Great Basin...
Despite a modest drop-off in the mid-level winds, widespread
critical conditions are again expected for southern/eastern Nevada
into western Utah. Winds of 20-30 mph will overlap with single digit
RH in the Nevada and around 15% in western Utah.

Thunderstorms are also possible within the Four Corners vicinity.
With the additional mid-level moisture working its way north and
west, it appears that dry thunderstorms will beco*e more isolated
than on Friday.

...Central High Plains...
Dry southerly return flow is expected again on the western flank of
the surface ridge. The lee trough that will develop will promote
15-20 mph winds. RH will probably fall to 15-20%, but this is more
uncertain with eastward extent. Elevated to perhaps locally critical
fire weather will occur.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...