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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

The Critical area was nudged farther north into Southwest Nebraska.
The remainder of the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below for more details.

..Wendt.. 04/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
An initial low-amplitude shortwave trough within westerly flow over
Coastal California will begin to rapidly deepen this morning ahead
of a potent 90 kt upstream jet streak. As heights aloft fall in
response to strong DCVA, a surface low will quickly deepen over the
Great Basin and western slopes of the central Rockies before it
shifts eastward onto the Plains late tonight. Breezy surface flow
over the Southwest and southern/central High Plains will overlap
with a very dry airmass and supportive fuels. Critical fire weather
potential appears likely. 

...Southern High Plains...
Intensifying mid-level westerlies will gradually beco*e more
southwesterly with time this morning as the upstream shortwave
trough deepens. Regional model soundings show deep inverted-v
profiles owing to strong diurnal mixing intersecting with 40 kt 500
mb flow. As the boundary layer deepens through the day, surface
winds will increase in response to downward momentum transport from
aloft. At the same time, the westerly flow will enhance lee
troughing bolstering west to east surface pressure gradients through
the afternoon. Hi-res guidance and model soundings show
high-confidence in sustained boundary-layer winds of 20-30 mph with
the potential for higher gusts, especially with western extent. With
a strong westerly co*ponent, downsloping trajectories will support
widespread RH below 15%. Fuels remain very receptive to fire spread
suggesting high confidence in Critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon. Some threat may linger overnight as the main trough and
jet eject eastward onto the Plains. Poor overnight recoveries are
expected, and while winds will likely slacken after dark, areas in
proximity to the higher terrain may retain near critical winds
overnight. 

...Central High Plains...
Unlike areas farther south, low-level surface flow across the
central Plains will be dominated by tightening surface pressure
gradients ahead of the western surface low. Regardless, gusty
southeasterly surface winds are likely to develop by mid-morning in
response to the approaching low. Ahead of the surging Gulf moisture,
dry surface conditions with RH of 15-20% should be more than
sufficient for widespread Elevated and Critical fire weather
conditions as far north as NE. Surface RH may begin to increase
through the afternoon and in the evening on the eastern fringes of
the Elevated and Critical areas as moisture advection increases east
of the fast moving low. However, low-level flow is forecast to
remain quite strong suggesting some fire weather potential may
linger overnight given the exceptionally dry nature of area fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...