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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across parts of the
Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon/evening. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes can be expected. Strong/severe
thunderstorms with hail/wind will also develop across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley region. Isolated
strong storms will also develop across the Gulf Coast states.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge extending from TN
into New England.  This ridge will rapidly shift eastward today as a
progressive upper low over northwest Ontario approaches, resulting
in large scale forcing and strengthening winds aloft overspreading
the Northeast states.  A very moist and potentially unstable air
mass is present over much of NY/PA, where daytime highs well into
the 80s and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000
J/kg and little capping inversion.

Present indications are that thunderstorms will form along an
approaching cold front over northeast OH into western NY, while
other isolated cells intensify in the warm sector across parts of
NY/PA.  Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong,
but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest
that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large
hail and a few tornadoes.  This activity will spread eastward during
the afternoon/evening across the ENH risk area, with upscale growth
into short bowing segments expected.  Damaging winds and hail would
be the primary threats.

...MO/IL Vicinity...
As the aforementioned upper low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes
region, a cold front will sag southward into the mid MS and OH
valleys.  Weak forcing aloft is expected to limit convective
development during the day.  However, a strengthening low-level jet
will likely contribute to scattered thunderstorms by mid-evening
along and just north of the front.  This activity will build
southeastward through the evening with a large hail and damaging
wind threat.

...Gulf Coast States...
Similar to yesterday, westward-moving afternoon thunderstorms are
expected from the FL Panhandle westward into parts of LA/MS.  Hot
and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
large CAPE values will promote damaging wind gusts in the stronger
cores.

..Hart/Mosier.. 06/16/2022