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Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central Illinois into
east-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

Valid 160053Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary severe
threat into the evening hours. Storms along the Mississippi River
may progress into a modestly favorable environment across
north-central Illinois, and a WW issuance may be needed downstream
in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of multicells and transient supercells has
beco*e established along the trailing cold front from the WI/IL
border into east-central KS over the past few hours, with a few of
the storms producing gusts up to 70 mph and sub-severe hail. Ahead
of the cold front/storms, a narrow corridor of minimal MLCINH
remains, with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted via the 00z mesoanalysis.
With widespread 40+ kts effective bulk shear in place, transient
supercells will remain capable of producing damaging gusts and large
hail so long as the boundary-layer airmass remains buoyant. Guidance
suggests that a buoyant airmass will remain in place for at least a
few more hours, including in north-central IL, which may need a WW
issuance in the next couple of hours if storms can remain organized.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...to*...
ICT...

LAT...LON   38309637 39879367 41049171 42278982 42528906 42488836
            42118779 41728772 41278822 40638937 39999041 39319194
            38709312 38209455 38069545 38309637