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Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...eastern Wisconsin to the upper peninsula of
Michigan and northern lower Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...372...

Valid 160003Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371, 372 continues.

SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms may maintain considerable
strength across at least portions of northern Lake Michigan into
northern lower Michigan by 9-11 PM EDT, posing a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts.  It is not certain a new severe
weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for
this possibility.

DISCUSSION...An organized mesoscale convective system has evolved,
with a number of embedded lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic
circulations, pockets of strengthening rear inflow and near surface
meso-vortices.  As a rapid forward (northeastward and eastward)
propagation continues, the impacts of a less unstable, more
inhibited boundary-layer near and east of Lake Michigan are unclear.
Rapid Refresh suggests that a drier lower/mid tropospheric air mass
is advecting northward through southern portions of Lake Michigan,
but a more moist environment farther north, coupled with lift
associated warm advection, may maintain vigorous slightly elevated
storms across northern Lake Michigan into northern lower Michigan by
01-03Z.  This could be acco*panied by at least a continuing risk for
localized damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON   44988755 45578725 46318707 46548578 45908346 45138357
            44648440 44338536 43998685 42568860 42588954 43978841
            44988755