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Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Southern MN...North-Central/Northeast IA...Far
Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131406Z - 131600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over western NE,
with a warm front extending northeastward from this low into
northwest IA and then back southwestward through central and
southeast IA into central IL. A low-level jet exists south of this
warm front across the southern and central Plains, contributing to
strong warm-air advection across this frontal zone. Regional 12Z
soundings reveal a very moist low-level air mass beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates, resulting in very strong buoyancy. This
buoyancy in tandem with the warm-air advection is supporting the
development of robust thunderstorms from southern MN into
north-central/northeast IA. Vertical shear is moderate throughout
the region, with the overall environment supportive of supercells
capable of large hail. 

Low-level stability and current storm motion suggest these storms
are currently elevated, although some transition to a more
surface-based character is possible over the next few hours as the
air mass heats. Until then, large hail will be the primary severe
hazards. As the storms beco*e more surface-based, the primary severe
threat will transition to strong wind gusts. Overall coverage of
severe remains uncertain, particularly in the near-term, with
additional uncertainty regarding the when/if storms will beco*e more
surface-based. Convective trends are being monitored closely for
possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44399416 44319266 44039171 43139072 42159054 41699086
            41679169 42349313 42999448 43299565 43669602 44159569
            44399416