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Mesoscale Discussion 1131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern Indiana...western and southern
Ohio...central West Virginia...adjacent Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122012Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe storms
posing a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are
possible through 5-7 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Generally weak but persistent convective development,
with embedded thunderstorms, has been occurring within a relatively
narrow eastward advancing corridor across parts of the middle Ohio
Valley.  This appears to be just ahead of the leading edge of a
plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
emanating from the Great Plains, and along the southwestern
periphery of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow to the southwest of a
mid-level low slowly turning eastward to the south of James Bay.  

Southerly low-level inflow into the storms appears to be emanating
from a seasonably moist (surface dew points around 65-70F)
boundary-layer which has been slowly destabilizing.  Limited at
least somewhat by relatively warm mid-level temperatures,
mixed-layer CAPE may only be around 1500 J/kg.  However, deep-layer
shear beneath 30-40+ kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb may
support occasional supercell structures posing a risk for hail and
locally strong surface gusts as stronger cells beco*e increasingly
rooted within the boundary-layer late this afternoon.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40868460 40578341 39488146 39238042 38797912 38027935
            38438148 39348319 40038414 40498564 40638608 40868460