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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday into Monday
night across parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

...Northern Plains...
An upper trough enco*passing much of the western CONUS should move
slowly eastward across the northern/central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Monday. At the surface, rich low-level moisture
should stream northward across the northern Plains to the east of a
front/dryline. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a strong cap will
likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorms across this region
through much of the day. Still, robust MUCAPE is forecast to develop
through Monday evening in a southwest to northeast corridor from
western SD into much of ND. There may be some chance for
surface-based convection across eastern ND Monday afternoon, but a
better chance for intense thunderstorm development should occur
Monday evening/night farther west as large-scale ascent associated
with the upper trough overspreads the northern High Plains. Even if
convection remains slightly elevated, the reservoir of substantial
MUCAPE and strong effective bulk shear will likely support severe
thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging
winds as they spread northeastward across SD/ND through the period.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
A surface warm front is forecast to lift northward through the day
across parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley. A
very moist low-level airmass will be in place to the south of this
front. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an
EML, strong to extreme instability will likely be present along/near
this front. Some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may occur
generally to the north of the front Monday afternoon/evening in a
low-level warm advection regime, with a threat for mainly isolated
large hail. The potential for surface-based convection along/south
of the front is less clear, as a cap and rising mid-level heights
associated with an upper ridge may inhibit convection across the
much of the warm sector through the day.

..Gleason.. 06/11/2022