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Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...Northern/Central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 082047Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across
northern/central MS for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...c*nvective line moving through southern AR has recently
shown more forward propagation over the past half hour or so, with a
notable increase in outbound velocities from KLZK as well. Before
this recent forward surge, the overall character of the line had
been degrading, with only modest updrafts along the leading edge.
However, cold-tops have remained relatively cold as the line moved
across AR and recent trends suggest the line is likely a bit more
organized than the reflectivity structure suggested.

The downstream air mass is warm, moist, and unstable, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE from around 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
However, visible satellite imagery shows relatively flat cumulus,
likely a result of the warm low to mid-level temperatures and
stunted buoyancy. Expectation is for the ongoing line to continue
for at least the next hour or two, with some attendant threat for
localized damaging wind gusts. However, the line is not forecast to
increase in area extent or intensity, which should keep any severe
potential isolated. As such, a watch is not currently anticipated,
although convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34199100 34248956 33858830 33138848 32738933 33089119
            34199100