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Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia into southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081858Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be capable of
damaging winds through the remainder of the afternoon. This threat
will remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been ongoing
across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region. These storms are
developing within a broad swath of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE, which is
mainly being driven by unstable boundary-layer conditions as
temperatures warm into the upper 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in
the mid/upper 60s. Deep-layer shear across the region remains
marginal with 20-25 knot flow noted below 5 km in ACARS soundings
and regional VWPs. This will limit the potential for organized
convection and/or strong downward momentum transfer. However,
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen and will support the
potential for gusty outflow winds near 30-40 knots (such winds have
already been observed from a few storms across the Carolinas in the
past hour). 

Across eastern VA and southern MD, temperatures have warmed into the
low 90s across a broad swath of the region, which is supporting 0-3
km lapse rates between 8-9 C/km. Additionally, ACARS soundings from
the Washington D.C. region show slightly drier mid-level air and
stronger low to mid-level flow co*pared to locations further south.
This co*bination thermodynamic and kinematic co*bination is
co*paratively more favorable for stronger downburst winds co*pared
to the Carolinas (though a few strong downbursts are still possible
on a more localized level). Given developing convection along the
Blue Ridge Mountains in western VA, the potential for damaging winds
will likely increase across the region this afternoon. However, this
threat is expected to remain fairly limited both spatially and
temporally, negating the need for watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36727952 37437895 38147841 38957813 39247759 39247689
            39017646 38517625 37997630 37287641 36837679 36597738
            36517832 36727952