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Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...The Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 081738Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe weather, including a few
tornadoes, will increase in the co*ing hours for portions of the
Ohio River Valley. A watch will likely be needed to address this
potential.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon observations show a surface low gradually
deepening as it translates east towards the OH River Valley region.
Ahead of this low, a surface warm front is identified in both
surface observations as well as GOES visible imagery in the form of
a northward-advancing cumulus field. A diffuse, but discernible,
cold front is also noted advancing eastward with the low. Although
instability north of this boundary remains marginal, daytime heating
(modulated to a degree by cloud cover) and northward advection of
mid/upper 60s dewpoints have bolstered MLCAPE values to near 1000
J/kg. This instability is sufficient for deep convection (evidenced
by a few ongoing thunderstorms along the front) despite some
lingering inhibition. The northward advance of the warm front should
allow favorable buoyancy to spread as far north as the lower half of
IN/OH by mid/late afternoon.

Aloft, a seasonally strong upper-jet is supporting 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear both along the warm front and across the warm
sector to the south. Considerable veering in the lowest 2-3 km is
noted in regional VWPs within the warm frontal zone with a nearly
unidirectional flow field above this layer. This hodograph structure
will support the potential for supercells that may pose all hazards,
especially along the surface warm front and near the surface low
where low-level SRH will be maximized and storm residence time may
be adequate to realize the favorable environment. Initially discrete
storms appears likely with a gradual transition to clusters and/or a
few line segments possible as storms interact along the boundary
(though when this transition will occur this afternoon/evening is
uncertain). Regardless, the increase in severe potential is
sufficient to warrant a watch in the co*ing hours.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   37928694 38168765 38688769 39278765 39618724 39758582
            39828409 39758275 39438221 38708225 38198269 38018326
            37938451 37868542 37938638 37928694