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Mesoscale Discussion 1074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 072055Z - 072300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather continues across WW 321.
Severe hail will remain the predominant for the next 1-2 hours
before a gradual increase in severe wind potential later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are being tracked across
far eastern WY, southwest SD, and northwest NE. Several severe hail
reports have been noted with this activity, including a report of
1.75 inch hail. Instability has increased over the past 2 hours with
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg for most of the region. Effective
bulk shear remains near 40-50, so in general the environment remains
supportive for organized convection. 

A pair of supercells across the NE panhandle are fairly isolated,
and visible imagery shows little development in their immediate
vicinity. Additionally, these cells are migrating into better
low-level moisture, which will provide better surface-based
buoyancy. Consequently, these cells will continue to pose a large
hail threat and may have the best chance for producing significant
hail in the near term. 

Further to the north, semi-discrete supercells and a developing
cluster are noted from the WY/NE border to the Rapid City, SD
region. The stronger, more discrete cells will continue to pose a
hail risk, but trends from KUDX suggest that outflows may be
starting to consolidate. A transition to a more linear storm mode
may be underway, and a more substantial severe wind threat may
emerge across far northwest NE/southwest SD over the next 1-3 hours.

..Moore.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43170447 43680432 44080365 44370274 44020094 43660026
            42960013 41800018 40980124 41010267 41040419 42220459
            43170447