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Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...western KS...northeastern
NM...and the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071826Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for very large hail and severe wind
gusts should increase as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection has begun to develop over the
higher terrain of southern/central CO and northeastern NM early this
afternoon. An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over
central/eastern CO and vicinity over the next few hours as ascent
associated with a mid/upper-level jet and shortwave trough
overspreads the central High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear is
already present, with 45-55+ kt of effective bulk shear being
estimated by latest mesoanalysis. Weak instability at the moment
will increase quickly to around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with mostly
clear conditions encouraging robust diurnal heating. This
co*bination of strong shear and sufficient instability will likely
support supercells with the initial robust development along/near
the I-25 corridor within the next couple of hours as lingering
convective inhibition erodes. Large hail should be the main threat
with these supercells, although severe downdraft winds may also
occur. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated
very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) may occur. Most guidance
suggests the severe threat will increase by 20-21Z (2-3 PM MDT), and
watch issuance is likely by this time frame.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40350208 39460111 36530113 36130218 36060330 36100441
            36700488 39130483 40970452 40950266 40350208