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Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071809Z - 072015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind and isolated hail will
increase over the next 1-3 hours as convection intensifies along a
cold front. This threat will remain limited due to marginal
buoyancy, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics over the past 1-2 hours have
shown an increase in coverage of convective showers along a cold
front from eastern IN into north-central OH and far northwest PA.
Per GOES cloud-top temperatures, echo top trends, and the lack of
lightning, this activity remains fairly shallow. Ahead of the front,
temperatures continue to slowly warm into the low/mid 70s amid
mostly cloudy skies. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggest that
these temperatures are sufficient to support around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
A recent ACARS sounding from near Wilmington, OH reveals modest
mid-level lapse rates, but generally supports the RAP forecast and
suggests that the downstream environment may support an uptick in
intensity in the next few hours. The ACARS sounding also sampled
40-45 knot mid-level flow that may aid in some storm organization
along the front (though storm mode and destructive interference will
be limiting factors). Storms that can intensify along the front will
pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail.
However, the coverage of strong/severe storms is uncertain given the
overall modest thermodynamic environment and high probability for
storm interactions. Given these considerations, watch issuance is
not anticipated.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39878604 40278489 40948311 41688126 42247972 42177922
            41817866 41407859 40677918 40128023 39758105 39328205
            39028336 38958445 39008541 39168592 39478620 39878604