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Mesoscale Discussion 1071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern AR into northern
MS...western TN/KY...and southeastern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071724Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
may increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing
across parts of western AR. An MCV embedded within this cluster and
the presence of a rear inflow jet also appear present in recent
radar reflectivity and velocity imagery. Even with some cloud cover
present downstream into central/eastern AR, daytime heating has
allowed surface temperatures to already increase into the low to mid
80s. A very moist low-level airmass is also present across this
region, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. With
steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z LZK sounding, around
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE has already developed. Low-level flow
remains weak, but mid-level west-northwesterly winds are forecast to
gradually strengthen in tandem with the eastward-moving MCV and a
weak shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery. Around
25-35 kt of effective bulk shear should allow for some continued
thunderstorm organization, with multicell clusters the most probable
mode. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat if the
cluster can strengthen and beco*e more organized into
central/eastern AR. Additional convection has developed east of the
cluster along a weak surface boundary in eastern AR and western TN.
This convection may also pose an isolated threat for hail and
strong/gusty winds if it can strengthen over the next few hours.
Observational trends will be monitored for signs of increasing
convective organization and intensity, which may eventually prompt
watch issuance.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33669288 34259254 34959278 35809341 36119225 36329134
            36929036 36968875 36818844 36308819 35538812 34658889
            33739103 33669288