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Mesoscale Discussion 1070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071716Z - 071945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the northern High Plains
will gradually intensify through the afternoon. As this occurs, the
probability for severe hail and wind will increase, including the
potential for signification hail/wind as storms move into SD and NE.
A watch will likely be needed in the co*ing hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are already ongoing across the northern
High Plains in advance of a progressive upper-level shortwave
trough. Despite meager instability depicted in recent analyses,
strong deep-layer ascent will continue to support isolated to
scattered weak thunderstorms for the next several hours. Storms will
beco*e increasingly surface-based through the early afternoon, and
will likely begin to propagate to the southeast along a diffuse
stationary boundary/buoyancy gradient. As this occurs, gradual
intensification is expected as storms move into richer low-level
moisture across far southwest SD and northwest NE (where dewpoints
are in the upper 40s and low 50s) and as daytime heating boosts
boundary-layer instability and diminishes inhibition. Hints of
downstream destabilization are already noted in recent GOES imagery
in the form of increasingly agitated cumulus across portions of the
NE Panhandle. 

A 50-60 knot jet near 500 mb coupled with relatively weak low-level
flow is supporting elongated hodographs with around 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear. In this kinematic environment, initially
discrete cells may undergo splitting and will pose a threat for
large to very large (up to 2 inches in diameter) hail. Low-level
lapse rates have already steepened to near 8 C/km, and will support
the potential for severe winds. The wind threat will likely increase
late in the afternoon as storms begin to consolidate along the
diffuse frontal boundary, though exactly when this transition will
occur remains somewhat uncertain. Regardless, confidence remains
high that a robust severe threat will emerge in the co*ing hours for
portions of the central/northern High Plains, and a watch will
likely be needed.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44910486 44220318 43270097 42760072 41980139 41440283
            41360413 42230486 43770587 44520599 44910486