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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
across parts of the southern High Plains and from the Ozarks
vicinity into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will pivot east from the central Plains
to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. This will result in some modestly
strengthening westerly flow from the mid-MS Valley eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic overspreading a very moist boundary-layer. A weak
surface low will develop eastward from the mid-MS Valley vicinity to
the lower OH Valley, while a cold front drops southeast through the
period. Further east, a lee surface trough will extend across
VA/NC/SC, with some weak cyclogenesis occurring near the Chesapeake
Bay vicinity by late afternoon/evening. Easterly upslope low-level
flow across OK/TX and eastern NM/southeast CO will maintain a moist
airmass to the north of a weak surface low over southwest TX.

...OK/AR to the Lower OH/TN Valley Vicinity...

An ongoing MCS is possible across parts of OK and/or AR Wednesday
morning. This activity may produce gusty winds and hail, though time
of day typically would not favor intense convection. Some
reintensification or redevelopment of morning thunderstorms are
possible as they spread east toward the Mid-South. Midlevel lapse
rates will remain modest across the OH/TN Valley vicinity. However,
pockets of strong heating and dewpoints from the mid/upper 60s to
near 70 F will support moderate to strong destabilization ahead of
the shortwave trough. Vertical shear will remain marginal, but
adequate for at least periodically organized storms. Any MCV from
prior days convection migrating across the region could focus severe
potential. Furthermore, the weak surface front developing
south/southeast across the region will be another focus for strong
thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail and sporadic strong gusts will
be the main hazards with scattered thunderstorms.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

Similar to areas further west, a very moist airmass and strong
heating will result in moderate destabilization by afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely develop along higher terrain and spread
east by late afternoon. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse
rates may limit longevity of stronger/organized storms. However,
strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates coupled with PW
values greater than 1.75 inches will support some threat for strong
outflow winds. Furthermore, backed low-level winds in the vicinity
of the weak surface low/trough will result in small but curved
low-level hodographs, beco*ing elongated above 3 km. Effective shear
will be marginal for supercells, but a few stronger, rotating storms
could produce marginally severe hail.

...Southern High Plains...

Low-level upslope flow amid a moist and unstable airmass will
promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Capping may limit eastward extent of strong/severe storms initially.
Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest shear will support marginal
supercells capable of hail and strong outflow winds. Some guidance
suggest a thunderstorm cluster organizing via storm mergers/outflow
interactions could develop east into the TX Panhandle/South Plains
during the evening/overnight, with an acco*panying wind/hail threat.

..Leitman.. 06/07/2022