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Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Southern NE into northern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...

Valid 070415Z - 070545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316
continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual decrease in the severe threat is expected with
time, but some isolated hail risk may persist overnight.

DISCUSSION...At 04Z, a long-lived supercell is moving southeastward
toward south-central NE, with weaker convection farther south into
north-central KS. Deep-layer shear observed from the KUEX VWP
remains favorable for supercells, so the ongoing cell may continue
to pose a hail and localized wind threat for another 1-2 hours,
before MLCINH beco*es prohibitive for near-surface-based storms. 

Some elevated convection will likely persist overnight across parts
of south-central/southeast NE into northeast KS. Moderate MUCAPE, in
conjunction with rather strong mid/upper-level flow and adequate
effective shear, may support an isolated hail threat with the
stronger elevated storms overnight. However, the lack of a stronger
low-level jet response should limit the potential for organized
upscale growth, and the severe threat into the overnight hours is
currently expected to remain too marginal and isolated for new watch
issuance. Local watch extension of WW 316 may be needed depending on
short-term trends prior to the 05Z expiration time.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40969970 41359919 41229808 40829744 39719683 39369757
            39329838 39309894 39549941 40059953 40969970